In a paper under revision for The Cryosphere (paper under discussion at http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/2789/2012/tcd-6-2789-2012.html), we investigate with Elmer/Ice how current ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet may endure over the next century. This relies on three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; an unstructured mesh to usefully resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. We show that the modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. By conducting perturbation experiments, we find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and on its own has a stabilising effect, if destabilisation processes maintain themselves over time, current increases in the rate of ice loss are likely to continue. This work was performed using HPC resources from GENCI-CINES and from the Grenoble University High Performance Computing centre. This work is a contribution to the ice2sea project.
In Seddik and others (2012, Journal of Glaciology), Elmer/Ice was used to investigate dynamical changes of the Greenland ice sheet over 100 years under future climate conditions using the experiments provided by the SeaRISE assessment project. The full-Stokes approach is also compared with a shallow ice approximation model (SICOPOLIS) by means of the calculated evolution of the surface velocities, basal temperature and ice volume. More recently, the work has been extended to produce simulations over 200 years and the final results have been submitted to the SeaRISE project. Elmer/Ice is at present the only full Stokes model contributing to this multi-ice-sheet model community effort and the project is aimed to contribute to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).