The purpose of this new paper published in GMD is to assess the sub-shelf melting parameterisations that are more or less commonly used in Antartic ice-sheet modelling. In West Antarctica, the floating ice shelves fringing the continent are currently thinning, mainly because of increasing sub-ice-shelf melting coming from an oceanic origin. The consequence is less ice-shelf buttressing undergone by the upper part of the ice sheet that is thus accelerating and discharging more ice to the ocean, therefore increasing sea level rise. Representing sub-ice-shelf melting in ice-sheet models is thus crucial to future sea-level projections. This can be done by coupling your favourite ice sheet model, say Elmer/Ice, to your favourite ocean model, say NEMO, but the computational cost is likely to be too large to model the whole Antarctic ice sheet over the next century. To deal with computational cost, a solution is to parameterised the relation between oceanic properties (temperature and salinity) and sub-ice-shelf melting. So far, various parameterisations have been proposed in the litterature but they have never been compared to (i) each other and (ii) to the results of a coupled model, which is what we have done in this paper.
The melting parameterisations range from simple scalings with far-field thermal driving to emulators of box and plume models, which are more complex parameterisations. In total we have assessed 19 types of melting parameterisations, forced by 6 ocean temperature and salinity scenarios over the next century, using an ideal ice-sheet/ice-shelf system resembling the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica. All these simulations have been compared to a small ensemble (4 members) of the NEMO-Elmer/Ice coupled model, for which different aspects of the ocean model have been changed. Figure shows a clear difference between the melting patterns obtained from the coupled simulations in the one hand and the parameterisations in the other hand. For instance, the coupled model yields relatively more melting at the grounding line and less melting when getting closer to the calving front where the ice is thinner. It is however difficult to anticipate the different responses of the ice sheet to ocean scenarios, because we don't really know how it is affected by ice-shelf buttressing distribution. Thus, one of the best ways to evaluate the parameterisations is to use the time evolution of ice loss.
To quickly sum up the results of the study, the plume parameterisation underestimates the contribution to sea level when forced by the warming scenarios. The box parameterisation compares fairly well to the coupled results in general and gives the best results using five boxes. For simple scalings, the comparison to the coupled framework shows that a quadratic dependency to thermal forcing is required, as opposed to linear. In addition, the quadratic dependency is improved when melting depends on both local and nonlocal, i.e. averaged over the ice shelf, thermal forcing. The results of both the box and the two quadratic parameterisations fall within or close to the coupled model uncertainty.
Read More: Favier L., N.C. Jourdain, A. Jenkins, N. Merino, G. Durand, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet and P. Mathiot, 2019. Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3). Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255-2283, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019
Iceberg calving accounts for between 30 % and 60% of net mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has intensified and is now the single largest contributor to global sea level rise in the cryosphere. Changes to calving rates and the dynamics of calving glaciers represent a significant uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A growing body of observational evidence suggests that calving glaciers respond rapidly to regional environmental change, but predictive capacity is limited by the lack of suitable models capable of simulating calving mechanisms realistically. Here, we use a 3-D full-Stokes calving model to investigate the environmental sensitivity of Store Glacier, a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. We focus on two environmental processes: undercutting by submarine melting and buttressing by ice mélange, and our results indicate that Store Glacier is likely to be able to withstand moderate warming perturbations in which the former is increased by 50 % and the latter reduced by 50%. However, severe perturbation with a doubling of submarine melt rates or a complete loss of ice mélange destabilises the calving front in our model runs. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stress and fracture patterns at Store’s terminus are complex and varied, primarily due to the influence of basal topography. Calving style and environmental sensitivity vary greatly, with propagation of surface crevasses significantly influencing iceberg production in the northern side, whereas basal crevasses dominate in the south. Any future retreat is likely to be initiated in the southern side by a combination of increased submarine melt rates in summer and reduced mélange strength in winter. The lateral variability, as well as the importance of rotational and bending forces at the terminus, underlines the importance of using the 3-D full-Stokes stress solution when modelling Greenland’s calving glaciers.
Read more: Todd, J., Christoffersen, P., Zwinger, T., Råback, P., and Benn, D. I, 2019. Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice–ocean interactions under climate change: new insights from a 3-D full-Stokes model. The Cryosphere, 13, 1681-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019
Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.